New Study Finds E-Cigarette Flavor Bans May Push Users Toward Cigarettes

A newly published study in the Journal of Health Economics provides a sobering look at the unintended consequences of e-cigarette flavor bans. While these bans are often touted as a measure to reduce youth vaping, the findings suggest a far more complicated—and potentially dangerous—reality: flavor bans may be pushing both youth and adults back toward combustible cigarettes. 

Key Findings: 

The study, conducted by a team of economists and public health researchers, examined the impact of ENDS (Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems) flavor bans across multiple U.S. states. Here’s what they found: 

Short-term reductions in frequent and everyday vaping among youth (ages 12–17) of 2–3 percentage points after a flavor ban. 

Among young adults (ages 18–30), ENDS use also declined—but these reductions appeared to grow stronger over time (particularly after two years). 

Critically, the study found evidence of substitution from flavored vapes to unflavored products and combustible cigarettes, particularly among older teens and young adults. 

“Some evidence suggests that this effect weakens after two years... Finally, evidence suggests substitution from flavored ENDS to unflavored ENDS and cigarettes among certain age groups.” 

The Bigger Picture 

While the initial decline in youth vaping might seem like a win, this study raises a critical question: Are flavor bans solving one problem while reigniting another? 

The return to cigarettes—well documented as the most dangerous nicotine delivery system—poses a serious public health concern. This trend undermines efforts aimed at moving smokers smoke-free alternatives. 

As Dr. Charles Gardner, PhD, put it in a LinkedIn comment responding to the study: 

“All these studies show prohibiting 'flavored' nicotine vapes causes cigarette sales to increase.” 

This echoes a growing body of research indicating that limiting access to flavored vapes can backfire—particularly when adult smokers and former smokers are forced to choose between unflavored e-cigarettes and the cigarettes they once left behind. 

Policy Implications 

The study highlights the need for a nuanced policy that balances youth protection with access for adult nicotine consumers. Instead of blanket bans on flavored vapes, lawmakers might consider more targeted regulations, such as: 

Limiting flavored product sales to adult-only vape shops 

Strengthening enforcement on underage sales 

Launching education campaigns about relative risks 

Policies that drive people to a high-risk product like smoking do not serve public health goals. The data now tells us: flavor bans may reduce youth vaping—but at the cost of more cigarette use. 

Bottom Line: If the goal is to reduce smoking-related harm, we must avoid policy decisions that inadvertently increase cigarette use. The flavor debate is far from over—but this study adds weight to the argument that flavor bans may cause more harm than good. 

📘 Source: The effect of e-cigarette flavor bans on tobacco use – Journal of Health Economics (2025)